After a long hiatus I am back. Haven't done a single trade for past two years. Due to certain life changing events and my time away from India, did not allow me to do the same.

But now I think i need to get back on my feet and start doing what I love doing. ANALYSIS. Right now I am in US and would be doing more"delivery" based trading rather then futures &options. Its a strange rule, a person who stays outside India cannot do F&O unless he is an institutional trader. !!! Whatttttttt

Anyways that means that i would need a lot more capital, but at the same time I don't need to be worried about expiry dates and stuff. Time value of options etc. 

Let me start of by saying that the last post i wrote was that we would stay in the range between 6400 and 5500( wow!! I did trade a long time ago) . See how badly i was proved wrong !!!! :( :( :( 

But then its a learning phase and I need to re-start. I have almost forgot all the concepts of Hurst Cycles and stuff.. For that matter I would need to go back to basics of Resistance and Support. Do some more basic reading. But I will be back soon on my feet and start doing what I love doing. 

In the meantime, enjoy the week. and lets do this !!!!

Yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Cheers 

Sachin 

So we are setting ourselves up for a deep cut. 80 D and 40 D has topped out. Also 18 month is in the last leg of downmove. The only cycle which is positive right now is 40 W.

So better keep puts.. deep OTM put maybe 5400 or 5200 should be bought to protect your portfolio.

But as i mentioned earlier, this is going to be a 54 month low. And so we would be rebounding pretty well from there.

for day to day trading looks like an ABC correction is underway now after a fast upmove. 5625 looks ok for this downmove. but then we would be doing our last leg of upmove before going deep down. So buy puts at or around 5720+.

Enjoy the cycles after that and a windfall. :)

Cheers
Sachin

So we came out pretty strong from 80 D low and right now.. 10 d and 20 d is topping out so we might have  alittle breather here.. but was the low of 5661 the low for 18 month and hene 54 month is difficult to forecast.. although the break of 20 D fld gives me a target of 6200+ but this  might be a short squeeze market and eventually after eveyone becomes bullish the market might come down.. the levels to watch would be 6000( the 74.4%) retracement for the last downmove if we take that out then 6200 is given otherwise we go down from here in steps and make a low of 54 month in May sometime.. so better be buying stocks(nifty) in small quantities and good quality midcap till may and then enjoy the power of cycles by next year may.

Happy trading and investing!!!
Cheers
Sachin

so Mr cycles proved me wrong.. as per the theory if a long term cycel is hard down ( as is the case with 18 month right now), shorter term cycles also tend to fall in unison and thats what is happening right now.. its a good idea to start buying in deliveries slowly and steadily ( mostly nifty stocks) like Relinfra, sbin, hindalco, and other stocks whatever you like..

I am also buying some good quality midcap in this carnge like MCX, CARErating, Financial techonologies, oracle services etc.

HAve started buying in small quantities(10-20-30) shares per day whenver the stock falls more then 3% or more.. not touching any of the stocks which have got buthered and dont have nay fundamentals assocaited with them. although i like CORE since it still has some sales and profits..

Lets see.

Happy investing and trading.. and you might have to wait for atleast a year before all this booms again and we get to sell them again..

80 day trough formed on friday!!!??? mostly yes.. we might move up from here for sometime.. maybe till 28th feb.. when 40 day and 20 day top out .. and then a fall towards.. 18month low.. now again.. the fall wont happpen in a day. but some think like a 2011 repeat is coming..

long in Relcap closed with near 25 points done.. SBI closed with 50 points and tata steel with 11 points.. tata steel is still open..


Lets see how we go along.. although things are positive timewise.. 

right now we might have comlpeted the 80D low or about to complete. the clues lie in how fast we rally from here.. if we rally slow then we might still be waiting for 80D....
But one point to note: all the weekly cycles are down and 18 month low is still to be achieved.. the IDEAL timelines suggest somewhere in May but markets are not IDEAL.. so if we see a big big move down.. we should be buying it since it would confirm the last cycle of 54 month cycle and we should rally from here.. for this year. ..

Take care
Happy trading..

P.S: i am long tata steel, SBI and relcap.. lets see what do i get in next two to three weeks.

So looks like the 40D trough as well was formed last week itself. The troughs are coming early, maybe because the longer term cycles are turning down everyday now.

80D should top out in Mid janaury.

18M will top out in February

but these cycles are not always ideal. Considering history, Janaury generally tends to be the most bloodiest street. remember 8th jananury 2008 :) :) :)

So be little careful and if you have a portfolio of large sum, better be protected by buying puts.

For short term trading(2-3)days and stuff you can still go long on Nifty,SBIN,relcap etc etc.

Cheers