So looks like the 40D trough as well was formed last week itself. The troughs are coming early, maybe because the longer term cycles are turning down everyday now.

80D should top out in Mid janaury.

18M will top out in February

but these cycles are not always ideal. Considering history, Janaury generally tends to be the most bloodiest street. remember 8th jananury 2008 :) :) :)

So be little careful and if you have a portfolio of large sum, better be protected by buying puts.

For short term trading(2-3)days and stuff you can still go long on Nifty,SBIN,relcap etc etc.

Cheers

Looks like we came out of 20D trough pretty strong. The 40D trough is expected next week but since all other cycles are not so bearish ( i mean 20D, 10D and 5D) and also the weekly cycles we can say that might have been a 40 D trough as well. ( thats the biggest anamoly with cycles). But if anything has to come wll come in only next week. IN the meantime, there is another important long term cycle (18M) which is expected sometime in February, but as per othe cycle analyst these cycles tend to early or late sometime. I will not hazard a guess a here, but just doing a simple analysis tells me that we should be in for a trough somehwere in February end or March first week.

But before that we will have a 80 d trough in between sometime in mid jaanury so i would start collevting puts for janaury month end of this month or early next year. This is also in view that generally markets tend to go into a tailpspin in janaury etc etc. But being cautious here is bettwe since longer term cycles are going to top out mostly in Janaury or End of janaury. Since thses cycles always show some kind of variation always its bettwe to protect your portfoil or sell it altogehter( you might miss the last 4-5% move) but its better to protect those profits.

I am also selling part of portflio these days. Next in line is tata motors @310-325 range and then sit tight.

Relcap already gave a breakout, if it sustains for another week i might very well buy it around 370 odd region else will wait till the 18 month trough to add it to my portfolio.

Rest as we proceeed.

Happy trading!!

So nifty is doing what cycles were suggesting.. now looking at channels and trendlines looks like we can move towards 40D and 20D trough towards 5730 levels till 20-22nd december and then rise and shine till 6100 maybe( this will be decided later on) , so please accumulate some nifty stocks at lower levels. (i am doing so, i sold my SBIN and then will again accumulate @2100 odd levels) i am also planning to add relcap and relinfra near theri supports of 390 and 470 respectively for a handsome 10-15% in two months by february.

Dont get swayed by when bears come out at 5700 levels and start predicting a move towards 5500 and below. Do what cycles are telling you.


Again its not going to be a straight downmove, we might move hard down till 17/12 and then move up a little since 20d and smaller timeframes will bottom out. Short again and hold onto your shorts till expiry. you should be in a good shape.


Happy trading !!
Cheers
Sachin

Looks like 80 D trough was formed at 5550.. and we are coming out of it.. but the lower TF are topping out so we might see a dip towards 40D and 20 D trough but 40W and 20 w are still strong and pointing towards one more upward move towards 6000 maybe or something and then a big dip towards february end or march mid
SBI did show strength we can keep accumulating all dips and then final target of 2800 maybe by February end and then a crash along with Nifty.

Again I dont think nifty is going to 4000 levels and all.. might be restricted to 5000 levels. So buy at those levels. For handsome gain.

Cheers
Happy investing!!

Hey there,

So its been a while since i last posted. But i am learning a lot these days about cycles and their effect on the stocks. Right now, we have completed the 20 W and 40 W low and should start rallying from here. but the major cycle 18 month cycle has topped out. So once we complete the 20w and 40 W upmove which should top around end of february we should start seeing a major downside in the markets getting into arpil-may.. thats the time to buy again.

Another script that i am traking right now is SBIN. Looks like 20w, 40 w has bottomed out. So a good buy at every dip. I bought myself some when it bolted last week on result news.

I am not able to grab the software that would be really helpful.. because it way too much outside my budget.. so planning to make some money out of nifty movements and SBI movement for now to get some money and put it into the software.. till then enjoy your diwali and new year.. and please do let me know if you come across any software which can detemine cycles for a stock.

Also, dont worry, market is not going to make any new highs for couple of more years. so keep buying and selling.. thats the way to go in stock markets.. :) :) :)

Cheers
Sachin

So whats cooking?

Recently i came across a software called sentient trader which does all the analysis for you. Also i came across a book from Mr Hurst himself.

Have been reading and trying to get a hand around the software.

It gets complicated once you cant find the nominal model and the amplitues assocaited with each time wave.

FLD's and VTL's are proving helpful for now. But not doing any trading based on it. rather, just watching and learning.

Cheers!!!

After a long lull

So here i am still trying to understand the markets and voila.. the time frame aspect already told me that there will be a major ( 80 week) bottom around novemebr time( although that came in decemeber).But thats the fine tuning i need to do.

Right now as of today we will be going in for a shorter cycle uptrend.. and come back in next one month to see these lows again. But we are in uptrend overall atleast till for next 5 months. and then the fall will start. The price targets are somehwere near 5900-6000. The nifty cannot make a new high this year or next.

It will keep grinding at this broad range of 6300-4500. But for traders thats the best we can get.

Planning to purchase some kind of software where i can do the calculations and price targets automatically.

Let me know if you know of any software.