Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Looks like we came out of 20D trough pretty strong. The 40D trough is expected next week but since all other cycles are not so bearish ( i mean 20D, 10D and 5D) and also the weekly cycles we can say that might have been a 40 D trough as well. ( thats the biggest anamoly with cycles). But if anything has to come wll come in only next week. IN the meantime, there is another important long term cycle (18M) which is expected sometime in February, but as per othe cycle analyst these cycles tend to early or late sometime. I will not hazard a guess a here, but just doing a simple analysis tells me that we should be in for a trough somehwere in February end or March first week.

But before that we will have a 80 d trough in between sometime in mid jaanury so i would start collevting puts for janaury month end of this month or early next year. This is also in view that generally markets tend to go into a tailpspin in janaury etc etc. But being cautious here is bettwe since longer term cycles are going to top out mostly in Janaury or End of janaury. Since thses cycles always show some kind of variation always its bettwe to protect your portfoil or sell it altogehter( you might miss the last 4-5% move) but its better to protect those profits.

I am also selling part of portflio these days. Next in line is tata motors @310-325 range and then sit tight.

Relcap already gave a breakout, if it sustains for another week i might very well buy it around 370 odd region else will wait till the 18 month trough to add it to my portfolio.

Rest as we proceeed.

Happy trading!!

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