After a long hiatus I am back. Haven't done a single trade for past two years. Due to certain life changing events and my time away from India, did not allow me to do the same.

But now I think i need to get back on my feet and start doing what I love doing. ANALYSIS. Right now I am in US and would be doing more"delivery" based trading rather then futures &options. Its a strange rule, a person who stays outside India cannot do F&O unless he is an institutional trader. !!! Whatttttttt

Anyways that means that i would need a lot more capital, but at the same time I don't need to be worried about expiry dates and stuff. Time value of options etc. 

Let me start of by saying that the last post i wrote was that we would stay in the range between 6400 and 5500( wow!! I did trade a long time ago) . See how badly i was proved wrong !!!! :( :( :( 

But then its a learning phase and I need to re-start. I have almost forgot all the concepts of Hurst Cycles and stuff.. For that matter I would need to go back to basics of Resistance and Support. Do some more basic reading. But I will be back soon on my feet and start doing what I love doing. 

In the meantime, enjoy the week. and lets do this !!!!

Yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Cheers 

Sachin 

So we are setting ourselves up for a deep cut. 80 D and 40 D has topped out. Also 18 month is in the last leg of downmove. The only cycle which is positive right now is 40 W.

So better keep puts.. deep OTM put maybe 5400 or 5200 should be bought to protect your portfolio.

But as i mentioned earlier, this is going to be a 54 month low. And so we would be rebounding pretty well from there.

for day to day trading looks like an ABC correction is underway now after a fast upmove. 5625 looks ok for this downmove. but then we would be doing our last leg of upmove before going deep down. So buy puts at or around 5720+.

Enjoy the cycles after that and a windfall. :)

Cheers
Sachin

So we came out pretty strong from 80 D low and right now.. 10 d and 20 d is topping out so we might have  alittle breather here.. but was the low of 5661 the low for 18 month and hene 54 month is difficult to forecast.. although the break of 20 D fld gives me a target of 6200+ but this  might be a short squeeze market and eventually after eveyone becomes bullish the market might come down.. the levels to watch would be 6000( the 74.4%) retracement for the last downmove if we take that out then 6200 is given otherwise we go down from here in steps and make a low of 54 month in May sometime.. so better be buying stocks(nifty) in small quantities and good quality midcap till may and then enjoy the power of cycles by next year may.

Happy trading and investing!!!
Cheers
Sachin

so Mr cycles proved me wrong.. as per the theory if a long term cycel is hard down ( as is the case with 18 month right now), shorter term cycles also tend to fall in unison and thats what is happening right now.. its a good idea to start buying in deliveries slowly and steadily ( mostly nifty stocks) like Relinfra, sbin, hindalco, and other stocks whatever you like..

I am also buying some good quality midcap in this carnge like MCX, CARErating, Financial techonologies, oracle services etc.

HAve started buying in small quantities(10-20-30) shares per day whenver the stock falls more then 3% or more.. not touching any of the stocks which have got buthered and dont have nay fundamentals assocaited with them. although i like CORE since it still has some sales and profits..

Lets see.

Happy investing and trading.. and you might have to wait for atleast a year before all this booms again and we get to sell them again..

80 day trough formed on friday!!!??? mostly yes.. we might move up from here for sometime.. maybe till 28th feb.. when 40 day and 20 day top out .. and then a fall towards.. 18month low.. now again.. the fall wont happpen in a day. but some think like a 2011 repeat is coming..

long in Relcap closed with near 25 points done.. SBI closed with 50 points and tata steel with 11 points.. tata steel is still open..


Lets see how we go along.. although things are positive timewise.. 

right now we might have comlpeted the 80D low or about to complete. the clues lie in how fast we rally from here.. if we rally slow then we might still be waiting for 80D....
But one point to note: all the weekly cycles are down and 18 month low is still to be achieved.. the IDEAL timelines suggest somewhere in May but markets are not IDEAL.. so if we see a big big move down.. we should be buying it since it would confirm the last cycle of 54 month cycle and we should rally from here.. for this year. ..

Take care
Happy trading..

P.S: i am long tata steel, SBI and relcap.. lets see what do i get in next two to three weeks.

So looks like the 40D trough as well was formed last week itself. The troughs are coming early, maybe because the longer term cycles are turning down everyday now.

80D should top out in Mid janaury.

18M will top out in February

but these cycles are not always ideal. Considering history, Janaury generally tends to be the most bloodiest street. remember 8th jananury 2008 :) :) :)

So be little careful and if you have a portfolio of large sum, better be protected by buying puts.

For short term trading(2-3)days and stuff you can still go long on Nifty,SBIN,relcap etc etc.

Cheers

Looks like we came out of 20D trough pretty strong. The 40D trough is expected next week but since all other cycles are not so bearish ( i mean 20D, 10D and 5D) and also the weekly cycles we can say that might have been a 40 D trough as well. ( thats the biggest anamoly with cycles). But if anything has to come wll come in only next week. IN the meantime, there is another important long term cycle (18M) which is expected sometime in February, but as per othe cycle analyst these cycles tend to early or late sometime. I will not hazard a guess a here, but just doing a simple analysis tells me that we should be in for a trough somehwere in February end or March first week.

But before that we will have a 80 d trough in between sometime in mid jaanury so i would start collevting puts for janaury month end of this month or early next year. This is also in view that generally markets tend to go into a tailpspin in janaury etc etc. But being cautious here is bettwe since longer term cycles are going to top out mostly in Janaury or End of janaury. Since thses cycles always show some kind of variation always its bettwe to protect your portfoil or sell it altogehter( you might miss the last 4-5% move) but its better to protect those profits.

I am also selling part of portflio these days. Next in line is tata motors @310-325 range and then sit tight.

Relcap already gave a breakout, if it sustains for another week i might very well buy it around 370 odd region else will wait till the 18 month trough to add it to my portfolio.

Rest as we proceeed.

Happy trading!!

So nifty is doing what cycles were suggesting.. now looking at channels and trendlines looks like we can move towards 40D and 20D trough towards 5730 levels till 20-22nd december and then rise and shine till 6100 maybe( this will be decided later on) , so please accumulate some nifty stocks at lower levels. (i am doing so, i sold my SBIN and then will again accumulate @2100 odd levels) i am also planning to add relcap and relinfra near theri supports of 390 and 470 respectively for a handsome 10-15% in two months by february.

Dont get swayed by when bears come out at 5700 levels and start predicting a move towards 5500 and below. Do what cycles are telling you.


Again its not going to be a straight downmove, we might move hard down till 17/12 and then move up a little since 20d and smaller timeframes will bottom out. Short again and hold onto your shorts till expiry. you should be in a good shape.


Happy trading !!
Cheers
Sachin

Looks like 80 D trough was formed at 5550.. and we are coming out of it.. but the lower TF are topping out so we might see a dip towards 40D and 20 D trough but 40W and 20 w are still strong and pointing towards one more upward move towards 6000 maybe or something and then a big dip towards february end or march mid
SBI did show strength we can keep accumulating all dips and then final target of 2800 maybe by February end and then a crash along with Nifty.

Again I dont think nifty is going to 4000 levels and all.. might be restricted to 5000 levels. So buy at those levels. For handsome gain.

Cheers
Happy investing!!

Hey there,

So its been a while since i last posted. But i am learning a lot these days about cycles and their effect on the stocks. Right now, we have completed the 20 W and 40 W low and should start rallying from here. but the major cycle 18 month cycle has topped out. So once we complete the 20w and 40 W upmove which should top around end of february we should start seeing a major downside in the markets getting into arpil-may.. thats the time to buy again.

Another script that i am traking right now is SBIN. Looks like 20w, 40 w has bottomed out. So a good buy at every dip. I bought myself some when it bolted last week on result news.

I am not able to grab the software that would be really helpful.. because it way too much outside my budget.. so planning to make some money out of nifty movements and SBI movement for now to get some money and put it into the software.. till then enjoy your diwali and new year.. and please do let me know if you come across any software which can detemine cycles for a stock.

Also, dont worry, market is not going to make any new highs for couple of more years. so keep buying and selling.. thats the way to go in stock markets.. :) :) :)

Cheers
Sachin

So whats cooking?

Recently i came across a software called sentient trader which does all the analysis for you. Also i came across a book from Mr Hurst himself.

Have been reading and trying to get a hand around the software.

It gets complicated once you cant find the nominal model and the amplitues assocaited with each time wave.

FLD's and VTL's are proving helpful for now. But not doing any trading based on it. rather, just watching and learning.

Cheers!!!

After a long lull

So here i am still trying to understand the markets and voila.. the time frame aspect already told me that there will be a major ( 80 week) bottom around novemebr time( although that came in decemeber).But thats the fine tuning i need to do.

Right now as of today we will be going in for a shorter cycle uptrend.. and come back in next one month to see these lows again. But we are in uptrend overall atleast till for next 5 months. and then the fall will start. The price targets are somehwere near 5900-6000. The nifty cannot make a new high this year or next.

It will keep grinding at this broad range of 6300-4500. But for traders thats the best we can get.

Planning to purchase some kind of software where i can do the calculations and price targets automatically.

Let me know if you know of any software.

Time action vs Price action on stocks

This is my first time at writing a blog. So please excuse me if its not upto the "mark".

I have been trading for 10 months now, and inspite of all the research and analysis, i have always seen one thing.

1. There is no one who can tell you how time action will follow for a price action.
2. All TA indicators talk about is Price action.
3. EW talks about price action and is very very subjective on how to interpret waves. Most of the traders fail at interpreting the correct form. Long term projection are amazing with this tool, but for daily trading or positional trading(2-3 weeks), this tool goes for a toss. Atleast for me.

So i started searching for something which can help me with time action and came across a book called "The magic of stock transaction timing" by Mr J.M.Hurst.

Its a very very complex book and anyone who hated maths in their life will not like this book. Because the authour does not give you lengthy speeches in the book. He is upto the point and straight away gives you the approach.

I have just started reading it and found it so useful. I could time trades on Indexes and stock. Its a long way to go to fine tune it. But surely this is the path i am ready to follow.

Why time analysis is important

1. It takes the pressure off from making trades. Have you felt the way i feel after my trade gets executed. Lets say i long a particular stock at particular price, and the prices start falling the minute the trade got executed? Do you watch indices all the time when market opens? Do you feel anxious when a trade goes against you and then you close with loss only to see that two days later its trading at your initial target price?
2. It prevents you from watching indices all the time.
3. It prevents you from constantly collecting data from all the sources and finally getting confused.
I had all these experiences and hence started analysing the time aspect.

Advantages

1. Takes the pressure off.
2. You do swing trading and you dont look at prices( i mean you do look for entry and exits) but you place your trade with confidence.
3. You keep your trade with you with less tension even if MTM is negative.

The only disadvantage i could find is

1. You dont enter the trade at one particular price. But that can be fine tuned by using Support and resistance levels. I am doing that right now.

So lets analyse these time action together and make more successful trades with less tension.

Cheers!!!